Tuesday, 1 June 2010

Has the Met Office built a computer model that works?

I am asking this because the met office have predicted the following;

Night-time temperatures could rise above 25C because of climate change

An extract;

The number of sweltering nights when the temperature in cities stays above 20C (68F) and the elderly become vulnerable to heat exhaustion will increase fivefold because of climate change, a Met Office study has found.

Opening the windows will make no difference because the outside temperature will be too warm for the heat in homes to escape. The “urban heat island effect”, in which buildings and roads absorb heat during the day and release it at night, could result in the temperature on the hottest nights remaining above 25C.

When will this happen then?

The Met Office study found that, by 2040, it could need to issue heatwave warnings for urban areas four times more frequently. The warning system was established after the 2003 heatwave to help people to protect those at risk, including the elderly, young children and those suffering with poor health caused by respiratory diseases.

So by 2040 the night time temperature will be at least 20C.

So they are predicting within 30 years what the temperature will be.

Does anyone remember this headline from March 2010;

Met Office drops seasonal forecast

An extract from the article;

Dave Britton, of the Met Office, admitted last night that it was just too difficult to give an accurate forecast for the seasons using the current science.
"Although we can identify general patterns of weather, the science does not exist to allow an exact forecast beyond five days, or to absolutely promise a certain type of weather.
"As a result, 'seasonal forecasts' cannot be as precise as our short-term forecast," he said.

The last line of the article reads;

The Met Office, based at Exeter in Devon, added that it would work towards developing the science of long range forecasting.

So has the Met Office built a new computer model that accurately predicts the weather in the future?

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